Mathematical model of Russian male height dynamics in the 20th century

Abstract

Introduction. The article presents the results of mathematical analysis of the dynamics of body length of the male population of Russia aged 17 years and older in 1901–2005. The novelty of the article is that the largest anthropometric data base on Russians of the 20th century is studied using the methods of multivariate correlation and regression analysis of dynamic series.

Materials and methods. The study used individual data on the height of 1,519,037 men aged 17 years and older, born between 1901 and 2005, 91% Russians, examined mainly during recruitment into the army under a program that included measuring total body dimensions. Dynamic series of body length and factor variables were analyzed using correlation and regression analysis in order to identify factors explaining the dynamics of growth in the 20th century and to construct a multiple regression model.

Results. Multiple correlation and regression analysis of body height dynamics depending on 16 economic, social, demographic and environmental factors by annual (with and without lag), by average 5-year and
20-year indicators yielded results that are important in terms of method and content. Four regression models were constructed for each type of data. The most interesting results were obtained by the model of variability of annual growth indicators taking into account the lag and the model of variability of average 5-year growth indicators. The first explains 51% of the variation in male height across years, and the second explains 78% of the variation in male height across five-year periods in 1950–2005.

Conclusion. The results of the mathematical-statistical and theoretical analysis largely coincide, which confirms the reliability and relevance of both. © 2025. This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 license

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