Regression models of regional variation in the secular trend of height in Russia in the 20th-21st centuries

Abstract

Introduction. The formation of the definitive body height is determined by genetic and environmental factors. An urgent task is the intersystem analysis of the relationships between the secular dynamics of body height and changes in socio-economic and demographic indicators over time. A similar model of relationships was developed for changes in the body height of the Russian population in the second half of the 20th century based on time fluctuations in socio-economic and demographic indicators. The purpose of this work is to test the performance of the all-Russian model on regional materials - to analyze general trends and identify features using the example of four large Russian cities.

Materials and Methods. The materials were time series of anthropometric, socio-economic and demographic indicators from open sources. The height data used in the study were collected by the authors in 2020-2024 during a survey of young people aged 17-23 in four Russian cities: Barnaul, Moscow, Petrozavodsk and Krasnodar. Body height for demographic cohorts from 1930-39 to the early 2000s. birth was obtained from literature sources.

Results and Discussion. It is shown that the variability of height in individual cities and federal districts is similar to the all-Russian one. In the first half of the 20th century, there was a sharp increase in the definitive height, after which the rate of increase declined and then reached a plateau. For the modern cohort of those examined (born in 2000-2006), a decrease in height was noted in some large cities.

Conclusion. Testing the regression model of the all-Russian secular trend in height in connection with changes in socio-economic and demographic indicators over time using regional data showed similar results. The identified regional features may be due to the different-time dynamics of changes in socio-economic conditions. A slight decrease in height in some cities of Russia among young people born in 2000-2006 may indicate a change in the direction of the secular trend, which confirms the general biological hypothesis about the wave-like nature of the trans-epochal dynamics of definitive height.

Funding. The study has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (RSF), project No.23-18-00086.

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